TED】スティーブン・レヴィット:マクドナルド対ドラッグのフリークノミクス (【TED】Steven Levitt: The freakonomics of McDonalds vs. drugs) - VoiceTube 動画で英語を学ぶ (2022)

TED】スティーブン・レヴィット:マクドナルド対ドラッグのフリークノミクス (【TED】Steven Levitt: The freakonomics of McDonalds vs. drugs) - VoiceTube 動画で英語を学ぶ (1)

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  • You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,

    ご安心ください 私がお話しするのは 自分自身の悲劇ではなく

  • but other people's tragedy.

    他人の悲劇です

  • It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy

    私達は他人の悲劇に関しては多少楽観的でいられます

  • than your own,

    それにこの会議の精神を保ちたいので

  • and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.

    もし報道記事が真実なら

  • So, if you believe the media accounts,

    クラック コカインの流行が最も盛んな時に麻薬の売人であることは

  • being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic

    大変華やかな人生だとヴァージニア ポストレルは言いました

  • was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.

    金 ドラッグ 拳銃 女

  • There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,

    派手な宝石も 何でも手に入ります

  • you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.

    今日皆さんにお話するのは 10年に及ぶ実際の調査に基づきます

  • What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,

    ギャングの中に入って

  • a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --

    その財務記録の実態を見るまれな機会を得たことから

  • to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --

    ギャングとはそんなに華やかな人生ではないと分かりました

  • that the answer turns out not to be

    それどころか もっと現実的に ギャングであることや

  • that being in the gang was a glamorous life.

    ギャングのために麻薬を売るのは アメリカでも最悪の仕事でしょう

  • But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --

    それを今日は皆さんに納得していただきます

  • selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.

    三つの話をします

  • And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.

    最初に クラックがなぜ都内のギャングに

  • So there are three things I want to do.

    これほど深い影響を及ぼしたかを説明します

  • First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine

    二番目に 僕みたいな奴がなぜ

  • had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.

    ギャングの内部を見る事ができたかを話します

  • Secondly, I want to tell you

    面白い話だと思います

  • how somebody like me came to be able to see

    そして三番目は ギャングの財政記録を実際に見て

  • the inner workings of a gang -- an interesting story, I think.

    解った事のいくつかを

  • And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,

    表面的に話します

  • about some of the things we found

    その前に 一つ注意をしておきます

  • when we actually got to look at the financial records,

    このプレゼンテーションは米国映画協会からR指定とされ

  • the books, of the gang.

    アダルトテーマやアダルト表現が含まれます

  • So before I do that, just one warning,

    まあ 僕を見ていただければ わかると思いますが

  • which is that this presentation has been rated 'R'

    ヌードはありません

  • by the Motion Picture Association of America.

    まあ

  • It contains adult themes, adult language.

    (笑)

  • Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know

    服がずれ落ちない限り..

  • that, in fact, there'll be no nudity --

    (笑)

  • (Laughter)

    さて クラックとそれがいかにギャングを変えたかについて話しましょう

  • Unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.

    クラック コカイン前 80年代初めの

  • (Laughter)

    ギャング リーダーの視点から見ていきます

  • So let me start by talking about crack cocaine,

    80年代半ば 都心のギャング リーダーでいることは悪くはありません

  • and how it transformed the gang.

    80年代の初めは--

  • To do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,

    絶大な権力があって 人に暴力をふるって--

  • in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.

    多くの名声と多くの尊敬

  • Being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s --

    でもお金持ちではなかった

  • the early '80s, let me say.

    ギャングはお金を儲ける方法がないのです

  • Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --

    手下からは徴収できずー

  • you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.

    彼らには金がない

  • But the thing is, there was no money in it.

    マリファナは儲かりません

  • The gang had no way to make money.

    マリファナは安すぎたので

  • You couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,

    お金は儲かりません

  • because the people in the gang didn't have any money.

    コカインは売れません

  • You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana --

    粉末コカインは優秀な商品です

  • marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.

    でも金持ちの白人にしか売れず

  • You can't get rich selling marijuana.

    都心のギャング メンバーのほとんどは白人に知り合いがなく

  • You couldn't sell cocaine;

    市場に出られない

  • cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --

    軽犯罪では

  • but you've got to know rich white people.

    生計が立たない

  • And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people,

    その結果

  • so couldn't sell to that market.

    ギャング リーダーは権力があって

  • You couldn't really do petty crime, either.

    いい生活ができても

  • Turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.

    実家で母親と住んでいます

  • As a result, as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --

    それに本当の職業じゃない

  • it's a pretty good life -- but the thing was, in the end,

    いかに

  • you were living at home with your mother.

    権力と影響力があっても

  • And so it wasn't really a career.

    母親と一緒ではね...

  • There were limits to how powerful and important you could be

    そこでクラックの登場です

  • if you had to live at home with your mother.

    マルコム グラッドウェルの言葉を借りればクラックは

  • Then along comes crack cocaine.

    都心用のトマトの塊入りトマトソースでした

  • And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell,

    (笑)

  • crack cocaine was the extra-chunky version of tomato sauce

    クラックは驚くべき革新だったのです

  • for the inner city.

    これについて話す時間はありません

  • (Laughter)

    でも 考えてみれば過去25年において

  • Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.

    アメリカでの全ての発明や革新のうち

  • I don't have time to talk about it today, but if you think about it,

    都心の住人の福祉に一番大きな影響を与えたのが

  • I would say that in the last 25 years,

    クラック コカインだと言えます

  • of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,

    良い影響ではなく 悪い影響

  • the biggest one in terms of impact

    人生への大きな影響

  • on the well-being of people who live in the inner city,

    ではクラックの魅力とは?

  • was crack cocaine.

    ハイな状態になるには最高の方法です

  • And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.

    粉末コカインと違い クラックコカインは喫煙できます

  • It had a huge impact on life.

    喫煙は鼻から吸い込むよりも効率的に

  • So what was it about crack cocaine?

    ハイになれます

  • It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.

    クラックは求められていたわけでもないのにあっという間に

  • Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --

    広まった

  • and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism of delivering a high

    売るにも完璧でした

  • than snorting it.

    1ドルで手に入り 5ドルで売れるのです

  • And it turned out there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,

    中毒度が高く -- ハイ状態の時間がとても短い

  • but when it came, it really did.

    15分は 最高の気分です

  • And it was a perfect drug;

    それから気分は落ち込み またハイの状態になりたいと願います

  • you could buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar,

    最高の市場です

  • sell it for five dollars.

    ギャングを運営する人にも

  • Highly addictive -- the high was very short.

    お金を儲ける最高の手段に見えました

  • So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high,

    少なくともトップには

  • and then when you come down,

    ここで僕達の登場です

  • all you want to do is get high again.

    実は僕はただの端役で 共著者の

  • It created a wonderful market.

    スディール ヴェンカテッシュが主役です

  • And for the people who were there running the gang,

    彼は大学を数学を専攻していた気の良い奴で

  • it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.

    社会学の博士号を習得する事に決めて

  • At least for the people on the top.

    シカゴ大学に来ました

  • So this is where we enter the picture.

    シカゴに来る前の3ヶ月は バンドグループ グレイトフル デッドの

  • Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.

    追っかけをしており

  • My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.

    外見は彼自身の言葉で「まるで気違い」

  • He was a math major in college who had a good heart,

    彼は南アジア人 -- とても浅黒い南アジア人です

  • and decided he wanted to get a sociology PhD,

    大きな男で 髪は 彼の言葉で「ケツにとどく」

  • came to the University of Chicago.

    あらゆる境界に挑み 黒人か白人? 男か女?

  • Now, the three months before he came to Chicago,

    彼は物珍しい"ひと"でした

  • he had spent following the Grateful Dead.

    彼はシカゴ大学に現れ

  • And in his own words, he "looked like a freak."

    そして有名な社会学者 ウイリアムJウィルソンは

  • He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.

    シカゴ中の住人の調査に関する本の作成中でした

  • Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."

    彼の為に調査を行うことになったスディールを見て

  • Defied all kinds of boundaries:

    調査にぴったりの場所を選びました

  • Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?

    最も無法で悪名高い公営団地の1つ

  • He was really a curious sight to be seen.

    しかもシカゴだけでなく 米国全域です

  • So he showed up at the University of Chicago,

    スディールは郊外出身で 都心にほとんど縁がなかったのですが

  • and the famous sociologist William Julius Wilson

    まじめに クリップボードを抱え この公営団地へと出向きました

  • was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.

    最初の建物にたどり着き

  • He took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,

    最初の建物? そこには誰もいません

  • and decided he knew exactly the place to send him,

    でも階段の吹き抜けの上から声がしたので階段を登ります

  • which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects

    角を曲がると

  • not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.

    若いアフリカ系アメリカ人の男性グループがダイスをしていました

  • So Sudhir, the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city,

    1990年頃で クラック流行の頂点でした

  • dutifully took his clipboard and walked down to this housing project,

    ギャングは危険な仕事なのでー驚かされるのを嫌います

  • gets to the first building.

    角からいきなり驚かされるのは嬉しくない事です

  • The first building? Well, there's nobody there.

    まず撃て 質問は後だ がモットーです

  • But he hears some voices up in the stairwell,

    スディールはラッキーでした

  • so he climbs up the stairwell, comes around the corner,

    彼はすごく変人で--

  • and finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.

    クリップボードが彼の命を救いました

  • This is about 1990, peak of the crack epidemic.

    ギャングはクリップボードで襲撃に来たりはしませんから

  • This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang.

    (笑)

  • You don't like to be surprised.

    歓迎こそしなかったものの 彼らは言いました

  • You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.

    その調査てぇのを聞いてみようじゃないか

  • And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.

    冗談じゃなく 調査のための最初の質問は

  • Now, Sudhir was lucky -- he was such a freak,

    「アメリカで

  • and that clipboard probably saved his life,

    貧乏かつ黒人である事をどう感じるか?」(笑)

  • because they figured no other rival gang member

    学者ってのは

  • would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.

    (笑)

  • (Laughter)

    選択できる回答は: 大変良い、良い、悪い、大変悪い

  • So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,

    スディールが実際もらった回答はー

  • well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.

    (E:クソくらえ)(笑)

  • So -- I kid you not --

    調査はスディールを危機に陥れ

  • the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was:

    彼は階段の吹き抜けで一晩中人質にされました

  • "How do you feel about being poor and Black in America?"

    多くの発砲があり

  • (Laughter)

    哲学的議論をメンバーと交わしました

  • Makes you wonder about academics.

    明け方リーダーが

  • So the choice of answers were:

    彼は脅威ではないと帰しました

  • [A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad]

    スディールは家でシャワーを浴び昼寝して

  • (Laughter)

    あなたや僕が こういう目に会ったら多分こう思うでしょう

  • What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following:

    卒論はグレイトフルデッドについてにしよう

  • [A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad E) Fuck you]

    3か月も追っかけたし

  • (Laughter)

    (笑)

  • The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.

    一方スディールは すぐに その公共住宅に戻りました

  • He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.

    2階に上がって こう言いました 「こんにちは

  • There was a lot of gunfire,

    昨晩は楽しかった

  • there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.

    今夜もできないかな」

  • By morning, the gang leader arrived,

    これは美しい友情の始まりとなって

  • checked out Sudhir, decided he was no threat,

    スディールは10年にわたり 公共住宅に出入りしました

  • and they let him go home.

    クラック密売所でたむろし ギャングと刑務所に入り

  • So Sudhir went home, took a shower, took a nap.

    車の窓ガラスを撃たれたり

  • And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,

    彼のアパートに侵入した警察にコンピューターディスクを盗まれたり

  • "I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead,

    ありとあらゆることがありました

  • I've been following them for the last three months."

    最終的に物語はハッピーエンドとなり

  • (Laughter)

    彼は米国で最も尊敬される社会学者の一人となりました

  • Sudhir, on the other hand,

    オフィスでエクセルを開き 彼がギャングから山のような

  • got right back, walked down to the housing project,

    最新情報を仕入れるのを待っていた

  • went up to the second floor,

    僕には特に--

  • and said: "Hey, guys, I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,

    最も不平等な協同著書でしょう

  • I wonder if I could do it again tonight."

    (笑)

  • And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship

    私は受益者側であって光栄でした

  • that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years,

    さて 僕たちは何を見つけたか?ギャングから何を学んだか? 一つ言わせてください

  • hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,

    僕たちはギャングの皆に会い

  • having the windows shot out of his car,

    内部の底辺からトップまで観察しました

  • having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --

    彼らはスディールを信用し -- 今までに学者が --

  • you name it.

    というか外部の誰も --ここまで信用されたものはいません

  • But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,

    僕にとって一番興味深い 帳簿

  • who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.

    財政的な記録を見せてくれるまでにー

  • And especially for me,

    僕たちは

  • as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,

    帳簿を借り 調べ 質問もできました

  • waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data

    ギャングから学んだ事の結論を

  • that he would get from the gang.

    短時間で短くまとめるとすれば

  • (Laughter)

    ギャングを他の組織と並行して示すとすれば

  • It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --

    ギャングはマクドナルドです

  • (Laughter)

    様々な点で-

  • But I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.

    まず最初に--あまり面白くはありませんが

  • So what did we find?

    どう組織されているかを見ましょう

  • What did we find in the gang?

    ギャングの階層を

  • Well, let me say one thing:

    これがギャングの組織図です

  • We really got access to everybody in the gang.

    組織図はご存知ですか?

  • We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.

    マクドナルドの組織図を解体し単純化すると

  • They trusted Sudhir, in ways that really no academic has ever --

    全く同じ組織図になります

  • or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,

    驚くべきことに ギャングのトップたちは

  • to the point where they actually opened up

    彼ら自身をまさに「取締役員」と呼びます

  • what was most interesting for me -- their books,

    (笑)

  • the financial records they kept.

    スディール曰く「彼らにアメリカの企業についての

  • They made them available to us, and we not only could study them,

    教養があるわけではなく

  • but we could ask them questions about what was in them.

    「ウォール街」のような映画を観て

  • So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have

    実体社会を学んだ為でしょう」

  • what the bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,

    その取締役会の下で 基本的に地域のVPがいます-

  • it's that, if I had to draw a parallel between the gang

    言わばシカゴの南側や 西側を治める人

  • and any other organization,

    スディールはアイオワ州のフランチャイズを取る事を

  • it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's,

    不幸にも任命された人と仲良くなります

  • in a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.

    (笑)

  • So first, in one way,

    それは 黒人ギャングが請け負った中でも

  • which isn't maybe the most interesting way, but it's a good way to start --

    財政面での努力の実らない場所でした

  • is in the way it's organized, the hierarchy of the gang,

    (笑)

  • the way it looks.

    しかしギャングとマクドナルドの似た点はそのフランチャイズ手法です

  • So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.

    経営者である地方ギャングは

  • I don't know if you know much about org charts,

    4街区ごとを取り仕切ります

  • but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,

    彼らはある意味マクドナルドの店長で

  • this is exactly what it would look like.

    起業家です

  • It's amazing, but the top level of the gang,

    麻薬売買の特別な財産権を得て

  • they actually call themselves the "Board of Directors."

    背後にいるギャング名で販売促進や市場開拓をします

  • (Laughter)

    経営次第で儲け 損をするのは

  • And Sudhir says

    基本的には彼らなのです

  • it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated view

    さて皆さんに本当に考えていただきたいのは底辺の

  • of what happened in American corporate life,

    歩兵たちです

  • but they had seen movies like "Wall Street,"

    主に10代で

  • and they had learned a little bit about what it was like

    街角でドラッグを売る--

  • to be in the real world.

    大変危険です

  • Now, below that board of directors,

    大切なのは組織のほぼ皆かなりの割合が 底辺に

  • you've got essentially what are regional VPs --

    属する事

  • people who control, say, the South Side of Chicago, or the West Side of Chicago.

    そうです まるでマクドナルド

  • Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment

    歩兵たちは マクドナルドで注文を取る人と

  • of trying to take the Iowa franchise,

    同じだといえます

  • which, it turned out, for this black gang,

    彼らが似ているのは偶然ではなく

  • was not one of the more brilliant financial endeavors they undertook.

    この界隈では 同一人物なのです

  • (Laughter)

    ギャングの為に働いている子供の大半は

  • But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.

    同時にマクドナルドのような場所で

  • The guys who are running the local gangs --

    アルバイトしています

  • the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --

    先程の話 ギャングが

  • they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.

    儲からないという証明です

  • They are the entrepreneurs.

    ギャングが素晴しく儲かる仕事だったら

  • They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.

    マクドナルドでアルバイトしますか?

  • They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.

    では 収入はいくらか? 驚くなかれ

  • And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,

    実際

  • depending on how good they are at running the business.

    彼らと話し 記録を見て

  • Now, the group I really want you to think about, though,

    彼らの収入とは

  • are the ones at the bottom -- the foot soldiers.

    歩兵の場合は時給3.5ドルです

  • These are the teenagers, typically,

    最低賃金を下回りますね? 文書で裏付けできます

  • who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.

    消費のパターンからも簡単に読み取れます

  • Extremely dangerous work.

    作り事ではなく 事実です

  • And important to note is that almost all of the weight, all of the people

    ギャングは お金持ちではない 特に底辺は

  • in this organization are at the bottom -- just like McDonald's.

    もし 地域のリーダーになれたとしても

  • So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people

    マクドナルドの店長と同等です

  • who are taking your order at McDonald's,

    一年での稼ぎは10万ドル

  • and it's not just by chance that they're like them.

    それが期待できる最高の仕事です

  • In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.

    もし それらの界隈で育った黒人男性なら

  • So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually,

    トップになれば

  • at the very same time, typically working part-time

    20万から40万ドルは期待でき

  • at a place like McDonald's.

    成功者と言われます

  • Which already foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,

    クラックが及ぼす多くの影響で嘆かわしいのは

  • about what a crappy job it was, being in the gang.

    これらの地域社会の最も有能な個人が その為に

  • Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,

    努力する事です

  • why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?

    彼らは合法的な方法で成功しようとはしません

  • So what do the wages look like? You might be surprised.

    それでは抜け出せない

  • But based on being able to talk to them and to see their records,

    これが最高の抜け道です

  • this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.

    そして実際 これは 正しい選択でしょう

  • The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 an hour.

    見て下さい

  • It was below the minimum wage. And this is well-documented.

    マクドナルドとの関係はここで崩れます

  • It's easy to see by the patterns of consumption they have.

    収入は同じに見えます

  • It really is not fiction -- it's fact.

    なぜそんなに酷い仕事か?

  • There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.

    それは いつも銃で

  • Now if you managed to rise up, say, and be that local leader,

    襲われるから

  • the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee,

    死亡率はというと?

  • you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.

    調査したギャングでは -- これは普通でない

  • And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get

    状況下でした

  • if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.

    激しい武力衝突や ギャングの戦争があり

  • If you managed to rise to the very top,

    このギャングは結構成功したのですが 犠牲を伴いました

  • 200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.

    僕らの取った死亡率は

  • Truly, you would be a great success story.

    --逮捕され率 刑務所送り 怪我した率を含め--

  • And one of the sad parts of this is that, indeed,

    年間一人当たり7%です

  • among the many other ramifications of crack cocaine

    ギャングになって4年目なら 死ぬ確率は25%です

  • is that the most talented individuals in these communities --

    これがほぼ最高率でしょう

  • this is what they were striving for.

    比較のため 他の生き方を見てみましょう

  • They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,

    死ぬ確率が高いと思われる

  • because there were no legitimate channels out.

    殺人者なら

  • This was the best way out.

    有罪となり 死刑囚監房行きです

  • And it actually was the right choice, probably,

    死刑囚の処刑を含む

  • to try to make it out this way.

    全ての原因による死亡率は1年につき2%です

  • You look at this,

    (笑)

  • the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.

    死刑囚監房にいる方が 街頭でドラッグを売るより安全なのです

  • The money looks about the same.

    これは 死刑制度が犯罪の抑止になると

  • Why is it such a bad job?

    信じる人に再考させることでしょう

  • Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody shooting at you

    悪い面を強調しているわけではないのですが

  • a lot of the time.

    クラック時代の都心の酷さは--

  • So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?

    別の話になりますが--

  • We found, in our gang --

    米国の都心で

  • and admittedly, this was not really a standard situation;

    育つ黒人男性の死亡率を無作為にみると--

  • as this gang actually became quite successful.

    これは大変高いです

  • But there were costs.

    変死の死亡率です 信じられない数字です

  • And so the death rate --

    全体像で見ると 例えばイラク戦争で

  • not to mention the rate of being arrested, sent to prison, being wounded --

    現在の戦っている兵士の死亡率は 0.5%

  • the death rate in our sample was seven percent per person per year.

    文字通り この国で育つ若い黒人男性は

  • You're in the gang for four years,

    イラク戦争で戦っている兵士達と

  • you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.

    同じような前線で暮らしているのです

  • That is about as high as you can get.

    こう尋ねたくなるでしょう

  • So for comparison's purposes,

    いったい誰が 4年の間に25%の死亡率で

  • let's think about some other walk of life you may expect might be extremely risky.

    時給3.5ドルでドラッグなんか売るんだ?

  • Let's say that you were a murderer

    なぜ彼らはそうするか? 二つほど理由があります

  • and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.

    最初の理由は歴史に振り回されていることだと思います

  • It turns out, the death rates on death row from all causes, including execution:

    ギャングが通過儀礼であったということ

  • two percent a year.

    ギャングを取り仕切る若者が ある年齢になると

  • (Laughter)

    ギャングをやめる

  • So it's a lot safer being on death row

    では何が起こったか

  • than it is selling drugs out on the street.

    適時適所に居合わせた人が

  • That gives you some pause, for those of you who believe

    たまたま80年代の終わりにギャングを取り仕切っていて

  • that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.

    大変金持ちになった

  • To give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --

    論理的な考えとしては 次世代は

  • and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,

    「歳をとれば彼らはいずれ引退し

  • but really, there's another story to tell you there --

    次世代が引き継ぎ財産も受け継ぐ」

  • if you look at the death rates just of random, young black males

    インターネットブームと驚くほど似ていませんか?

  • growing up in the inner city in the United States,

    シリコンバレーの最初のグループはかなり裕福になり

  • the death rates during crack were about one percent.

    そして友人の誰もがこう言います「僕も同じ事しようかな」

  • That's extremely high.

    彼らは安い給料でも仕事を引き受け 期待した富にはたどり着きません

  • And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.

    ある意味 ギャングの下っ端から始めようという人にも

  • To put it into perspective: if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,

    全く同じ事が起こったといえます

  • for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.

    言わば法律事務所の下っ端弁護士のように

  • So in some very literal way,

    1年目は意気込みます

  • the young black men who were growing up in this country

    共同経営者になる為

  • were living in a war zone,

    週80時間 低賃金で

  • very much in the sense that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.

    実際には 規則が変わり経営者になれません

  • So why in the world, you might ask,

    1980年代後期に大手のギャングを仕切っていた人物が

  • would anybody be willing to stand out on a street corner

    今もシカゴを仕切っているのです

  • selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,

    財産も譲らない

  • with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?

    だから皆時給3.5ドルの仕事から抜け出せず 大変です

  • Why would they do that?

    ギャングが得意なものにマーケティングと詐欺があります

  • And I think there are a couple answers.

    例えば ギャングがやることにはー

  • I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.

    大勢の取り巻きがいるボスは

  • It used to be the gang was a rite of passage;

    お洒落な車に乗り派手なアクセサリーを身につける

  • that the young people controlled the gang;

    スディールが彼らと一緒に行動して気付いたことは

  • that as you got older, you dropped out of the gang.

    ギャングはこれらの車を所有しておらず

  • So what happened was,

    借り物です -彼らにはお洒落な車など買える余裕はなく

  • the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --

    金の装身具は 全て金メッキ

  • the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid-to-late-'80s --

    正真正銘の本物に対して偽の本物

  • became very, very wealthy.

    若者が ギャング人生が素晴しいと信じるよう

  • And so the logical thing to think

    トリックの全てを駆使して

  • was that they are going to age out of the gang

    例えば 彼らは14歳の子供に

  • like everybody else has,

    丸めた札束を握らせたり

  • and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth.

    その子は友達に

  • There are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom.

    こう言います

  • The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.

    「ギャングにもらったんだ」

  • And then all of my friends said, "Maybe I should go do that, too."

    それは使うまでは彼のお金ではなく・・

  • And they were willing to work very cheap for stock options that never came.

    そして借金となり しばらく年季奉公となります

  • In some sense, that's what happened, exactly,

    あと数分あるので

  • to the set of people we were looking at.

    最後に

  • They were willing to start at the bottom,

    ギャングを調査することで学んだ

  • just like, say, a first-year lawyer at a law firm

    一般的な経済学についてお話します

  • is willing to start at the bottom,

    経済学者は専門用語で語り

  • work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,

    理論がしばしばデータと相反します

  • because they think they're going to make partner.

    でも実際 興味深いのは この設定は

  • But the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.

    実体経済に当てはまらなかった経済学の理論が

  • Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s

    ドラック経済にうまく当てはまる事です

  • are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.

    ある意味 純粋な資本主義だからです

  • They never passed on any of the wealth,

    経済学の原則に

  • So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job,

    労働経済学の基本的な考えの一つ 「補償格差」があります

  • and it turned out to be a disaster.

    基本的に 労働者に賃金を多めに支払うことで

  • The other thing the gang was very good at was marketing and trickery.

    二つの仕事を平等に近づけ 不快な仕事の

  • And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --

    埋め合わせを

  • the gang leaders would have big entourages,

    するものです

  • and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.

    ゴミ回収員は公園で働く人より高い賃金を支払われる--

  • So what Sudhir eventually realized as he hung out with them more,

    ギャングの一員の話 これを明白に語ります

  • is that, really, they didn't own those cars -- they just leased them,

    僕は少々先走りしすぎたようです

  • because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.

    ギャングは 闘争中に

  • And they didn't really have gold jewelry, they had gold-plated jewelry.

    歩兵に2倍の金額を支払います

  • It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.

    まさに 同じ概念です

  • And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people

    危険にさらされるのは嫌なものです

  • into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.

    ギャングはこれを上手く表現します

  • So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid

    「こんなヤバい(撃ち合い)中 立ってられっか?」

  • a whole roll of bills to hold.

    タマに当たるだろ

  • That 14-year-old kid would say to his friends,

    それで 命はれって言われちゃ 前金もらわなきゃね」

  • "Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."

    元来 ギャングは何か起きているかを

  • It wasn't his money -- until he spent it,

    経済学者よりもはっきりと言います

  • and then he was in debt to the gang,

    (笑)

  • and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.

    別の例で

  • So I have a couple minutes.

    経済学者は言います

  • Let me do one last thing I hadn't thought I'd have time to do,

    二人用ゲームにはナッシュ均衡がある

  • which is to talk about what we learned more generally about economics,

    ギャングメンバーの言葉を借りると

  • from the study of the gang.

    彼らが銃を撃たないと決めた理由は -

  • So, economists tend to talk in technical words.

    ギャングのすぐれたビジネス戦術の一つ

  • Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we over the data,

    他のギャング領土で 銃を空中に撃てば

  • but what's kind of interesting is that in this setting,

    人は そこへドラッグを買いに行くことを恐れ

  • it turned out that some of the economic theories

    あなたのシマで買う

  • that worked not so well in the real economy

    しかし 彼らはそうしません 理由はこうです

  • worked very well in the drug economy,

    「俺らがやつらのシマで撃ち始めたらどうなる

  • in some sense, because it's unfettered capitalism.

    そんなことしてみろよ

  • Here's an economic principle.

    あいつらもここに来て

  • This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics,

    撃ったら大変じゃん」

  • called a "compensating differential."

    (笑)

  • It's the idea that the increment to wages that a worker requires

    全く同じ概念です

  • to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks,

    でも経済学者も間違うことがあります

  • one which is more unpleasant than the other.

    データを観察して一つ分かったのが

  • Compensating differential -- it's why we think garbagemen might be paid more

    ギャングのリーダーには常に収入があること

  • than people who work in parks.

    どんなに悪い経済状態でも 常に自分に給料を払います

  • The words of one of the members of the gang, I think, make this clear.

    現金の流れや資本市場への

  • So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself --

    アクセス不足の理論があるので

  • it turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,

    ギャングの一員に

  • they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.

    「なぜ 自分はいつも給料があって 部下にはなかったりするの?」と聞くと

  • It's exactly this concept.

    「あいつらみんな 俺の地位を狙ってんだぜ

  • Because they're not willing to be at risk.

    負けを認めたら見くびられるぜ」

  • And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely, he says:

    私は考えました

  • "Would you stand around here when all this shit ..." -- the shooting --

    「CEOは しばしば自身に100万ドルのボーナスを与える

  • "... if all this shit's going on? No, right?

    会社が大損してても

  • So if I gonna be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."

    でも”見くびられる”という思考の重要性は経済学者には

  • I think the gang member says it much more articulately

    思いもつかない」

  • than the economist, about what's going on.

    しかし「見くびられる」というのは

  • (Laughter)

    もっと分析すべき重要な仮説かもしれません

  • Here's another one.

    ありがとうございました

  • Economists talk about game theory,

  • that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.

  • Here's the translation you get from the gang member.

  • They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --

  • One thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang:

  • if you go and just shoot guns in the air in the other gang's territory --

  • people are afraid to go buy drugs there,

  • they're going to come into your neighborhood.

  • Here's what he says about why they don't do that:

  • "If we start shooting around there, the other gang's territory,

  • nobody, I mean, you dig it, nobody gonna step on their turf.

  • But we gotta be careful,

  • 'cause they can shoot around here too and then we all fucked."

  • (Laughter)

  • So that's the same concept.

  • Then again, sometimes economists get it wrong.

  • One thing we observed in the data is that it looked like --

  • the gang leader always got paid.

  • No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.

  • We had some theories related to cash flow,

  • and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.

  • Then we asked the gang member,

  • "Why is it you always get paid and your workers don't always get paid?"

  • His response is,

  • "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?

  • If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."

  • And I thought about it and said,

  • "CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,

  • even when companies are losing a lot of money.

  • And it never would really occur to an economist

  • that this idea of 'weak and shit' could really be important."

  • (Laughter)

  • Maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.

  • Thank you very much.

  • (Applause)

You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,

ご安心ください 私がお話しするのは 自分自身の悲劇ではなく

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