In sports, the final test is the game or the match in which the two sides compete with one side coming out victorious. All the practice and preparation are finally tested on the field against a real opponent. Similarly, war is the final test between nations competing with one another on the world stage. All the theory and strategy that each side was sure would work is put to the test.
This is what we are seeing in the Ukraine. Since 2014, NATO counties have been arming and equipping the Ukrainian army for a war with Russia. For about the same time, the Russians have been thinking about war with the West. Preparation for fighting Ukraine started only a few years ago, but it has been clear to Russian leaders that conflict with the West was coming at some point.
Getting back to the sports analogy, NATO, which is America for all practical purposes, has been the reigning champion. Since the Cold War it has been assumed that no military could challenge the US military. The combination of technology, experience and economic resources made it possible for American to take the fight to any place on the planet and fight in the enemy’s backyard.
That last bit is an important part of the formula. If you have to fight a war on your home territory, winning comes with a fair bit of losing. Even before industrial war, defending your own lands meant disruption to your economy and culture. Fighting on the other guy’s turf is always preferred. Winning is all upside and you can mitigate the cost of losing by withdrawing before total defeat.
This was the formula for destroying Russia. The West, which again is the Global American Empire, would wage a proxy war on the borders of Russia. This would force the Russians to exhaust themselves defending the border. Eventually, the war would move onto Russian territory. Of course, economic war in this age is presumed to be one way to bring the war home to the civilian population.
From the very start, the collective West has operated under the assumption that the Russians could not sustain combat activity in the Ukraine for long. According to all the analysis, the Russians lacked the manpower, the money and the supplies to fight for more than a few months. Many analysts claimed that the war would last but a few weeks before the Russians ran out of material to fight.
Here we are five months into the war and that last bit of analysis has proved to be completely wrong. A study by the Royal United Services Institute, a venerable British institution, finds that the Russians have more than enough industrial capacity to maintain this war for as long as it takes. In fact, the evidence suggests that they have much more capacity than is currently being used.
Last weekend, the Russian army along with militia forces took control of the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Luhansk region of the Donbas. This ensures the quick end to the Ukrainian occupation of that region. There will be some cleaning up before the final push to destroy the rest of the Ukrainian army currently hunkered down in the towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Getting back to the sports analogy, the much smaller force taking the fight to the larger force in this war is like the smaller man going on the offensive against the bigger champion in a boxing match. The Russian expeditionary force is less that two hundred thousand men, while the Ukrainian army is half a million. Then there is the fact that the Ukrainians were armed and trained by the collective West.
There is a lot to be said about the technical aspects of the war and how the Russians have been able to defeat the Ukrainians. There is no question that the Russians, after some early missteps, have been better tactically than the West. The Ukrainians have been doing what American commanders have instructed, but the Russians seem to have done their homework and anticipated these moves.
All of the particulars are interesting on their own and will get analyzed in due time, but the larger issue is what matters now. The West went into this fight, in fact they precipitated the fight, sure that their strategy was superior. The war in Ukraine was going to be the proof of concept. The forces of democracy, trained by the heroes of democracy, would triumph over the opponents of democracy.
Right now, the going is slow for the Russians due to the fact they are meticulously removing an army from industrial areas in large population zones. In the next month, the battle will move to the open country where Russians air power and mobile units will come into their own. Instead of artillery battles, it will be one army demolishing the remnant of another army in the open field.
In other words, to get back to the sports analogy, we are about to enter the part of the fight where it is clear the champion is in serious trouble. This is when the announcers say something about how the champion was not prepared for the fight or that the opponent came in with a better strategy. Barring some miracle, the underrated challenger is going to score a huge upset over the champion.
This is not a boxing match. What the summer and autumn will bring is a flood of refugees from Ukraine into the West. The Germans are already facing a Turnip Winter thanks to energy shortages. The Poles are running out of money and patience with regards to the refugee situation. The collective West is facing a severe economic crisis as a result of the war against Russia.
Getting back to where we started, this war is the great test of the New World Order that Western elites have been boasting about at swanky conferences. It is not about Ukraine, but about the new way of running society. This was supposed to be the great leap forward into international managerialism, rule by the global best. Instead, it is looking like a global disaster caused by the West.
In sports, coaches, trainers and strategists whose teams and athletes fail in competition get fired from their jobs. It remains to be seen whether the people behind this debacle will get fired. History says they will learn nothing from this debacle. Like the restored Bourbons, Western elites forget nothing and learn nothing. On the other hand, if things get bad enough, they may not have a choice in the matter.
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