What if all guns disappeared? (2022)

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What if all guns disappeared?

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What if all guns disappeared? (1)

By Rachel Nuwer18th April 2018

Take the politics out of it. By the numbers, what would we gain – and lose – if all firearms suddenly were wiped off the face of the planet?

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This story originally published in April 2018 as part of our series What If, which uses imaginary scenarios to help us better understand the real world.

On 24 March 2018, more than two million people took to the streets in the US to protest gun violence. What the solution to that problem looks like depends on who you ask. Some wish to repeal citizens’ rights to bear arms, while others want to arm even more people. Most Americans have opinions that fall somewhere in between.

But what would happen if that debate was suddenly and irrevocably put to rest – because there were no guns at all? What if all firearms in the world suddenly disappeared with no way to get them back?

Guns obviously cannot just magically vanish. But this thought experiment allows us to remove politics from the equation and rationally consider what we could gain – and lose – should we ever actually decide to have fewer guns around.

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The most obvious effect of such a disappearance is simple: no gun deaths. Approximately 500,000 people around the world are killed by guns each year. In terms of developed countries, the biggest losses are in the US, where citizens own 300 to 350 million guns in total. There, gun homicide rates are more than 25 times higher than the combined rate of other high-income nations.

“About 100 people in this country die every day as a result of a gunshot,” says Jeffrey Swanson, a professor of psychiatry and behavioural science at Duke University School of Medicine in North Carolina. “If you take away the guns, lots and lots of those lives will be saved.”

What if all guns disappeared? (2)

A demonstrator holds up a picture of 18-year-old Michael Brown, who was shot and killed by a police officer in Ferguson, Missouri in 2014 (Credit: Getty Images)

(Video) What Would Happen If Guns Disappeared From the World?

Ranking at the top of that list would be lives otherwise lost to suicide. Around 60% of the 175,700 US firearm deaths from 2012 to 2016 were suicides, and half of the 44,000 Americans who killed themselves in 2015 used a gun.

More than 80% of attempted suicides with a gun end in death. “Unfortunately, the chances of survival are very low,” says criminologist and sociologist Tom Gabor, author of Confronting Gun Violence in America.

What’s more, most survivors of suicide attempts never go on to take their own life.

“Some folks are determined to die and will find another way to do it. But others are impulsive one-timers who’d go on to have very happy and productive lives,” says Ted Miller, a principal research scientist at the Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation. “That’s especially true of a lot of kids.”

Firearm bans

Australia provides compelling real-world evidence that fewer available guns correlates with a significant reduction in deaths – by suicide, and also by gun violence. In 1996, Martin Bryant opened fire on visitors at Port Arthur Historic Site in Tasmania, killing 35 people and injuring 23. For Australians, that tragedy marked a turning point. People of all political slants supported a ban against semi-automatic shotguns and rifles. In a matter of days, new legislation was enacted. The government purchased newly banned firearms at fair market value and then destroyed them, reducing Australia’s civilian gun stockpile by 30%.

What if all guns disappeared? (3)

After 35 people were killed at Port Arthur Historic Site, shown here on the 20th anniversary of the event, Australia passed laws to reduce gun ownership (Credit: Getty Images)

Philip Alpers, an adjunct associate professor at the Sydney School of Public Health, argues that the data shows that the impact of the gun legislation on deaths has been significant. That is the case true even if you take into account other possible explanations and pre-existing declines in suicide and homicide rates. “The result of that was the risk of dying by gunshot in Australia statistically reduced by more than 50%, and in the past 22 years has shown no sign of creeping up again,” he says.

Suicide was a big part of that drop: up to 80% of gun suicides no longer happened. “Suicide went down and surprised the hell out of us,” Alpers says. “Even more so, we were delighted to discover that the displacement of lethal methods did not occur. In other words, there is no evidence that those intending to commit suicide or homicide simply moved on to another weapon.”

It wasn’t just suicides. The rate of gun homicides in Australia was also slashed by more than half following the ban. And furthermore, while critics in the US often argue that murderers would just find another way to kill their victims, that didn’t happen in Australia. Instead, non-gun homicides remained roughly the same – meaning a drop in murders overall. “Murderers simply do not choose another weapon,” Alpers says.

This likely especially applies to domestic abusers. A woman whose violent partner has access to a gun is five to eight times more likely to be killed. If guns disappeared, partners who lash out in a moment of anger are much less likely to inflict fatal damage – and are perhaps less likely to become violent at all. Though controversial, some research indicates that the mere presence of a gun makes men behave more aggressively, a phenomenon called “the weapons effect”.

Should guns disappear, the US – where 50 women are shot to death by partners each month – likely would experience a similar decline in death as Australia.

The US is unexceptional in its overall level of most types of crime: it’s about average when compared to the UK, Western Europe, Japan and other developed nations.When it comes to homicides, however, the US rate is about four times higher. That’s because it’s much more likely a gun rather than another type of weapon will be used in an assault in the US, which increases the risk of death by a factor of seven.

(Video) What If All Guns Disappeared

What if all guns disappeared? (4)

Holly Dee’s daughter Nicole Oliver, in the snapshot, was shot and killed by her husband in 2007; each month 50 US women are shot to death by their partners (Credit: Getty Images)

“Think of two immature, angry, impulsive and intoxicated young men in the UK who come out of a pub and get into an argument,” Swanson says. “Someone’s going to get a black eye or bloody nose.”

“But in our country [the US],” he says, “it’s statistically more likely one of those men will have a hand gun, and you’re going to get a dead body.”

That difference boils down to what experts refer to as the ‘weapons instrumentality effect’: the fact that the weapon used has an effect on the outcome, says Robert Spitzer, a political science professor at the State University of New York College at Cortland. “There’s no weapon more efficient at killing people than a gun.”

As in Australia, real-world evidence from the US also shows that fewer guns result in fewer deaths and injuries. A 2017 study revealed that firearm homicide rates are lower in US states with stricter gun laws, while a 2014 analysis of all inpatient minors admitted to hospitals for trauma linked tighter firearm control to greater safety for children.

Guns also make interactions with the police deadlier. While the probability of an arrest causing injuries is the same in the US, British Columbia and Western Australia, research shows that “almost no one dies during an arrest in Australia or Canada,” Miller says – even though police in all three countries carry guns.

What if all guns disappeared? (5)

Although police officers in Australia, Canada and the US all carry guns, only in the US are nearly 1,000 citizens killed each year by police (Credit: Getty Images)

In the US, however, nearly 1,000 citizens are annually killed by police. Of course, the reasons for officer-involved violence are complex and often involve racial bias against non-white citizens, including even among African-American police themselves. Still, many of those deaths would likely be prevented were guns not involved.

“A lot of police brutality is really just because of police who themselves are in fear that they might get shot,” Miller says. “When police must guard against a gun during every stop, interactions become more lethal.”

No more guns would likewise mean safer conditions for police, Miller adds. More than half of the people killed by police in 2016 were armed, and many were exchanging fire with officers when they were shot.

What if all guns disappeared? (6)

Boys leave flowers at the cruiser of Massachussetts police officer Sean Gannon, who was shot and killed in April 2018 while serving a warrant (Credit: Getty Images)

Deadly mass attacks by domestic terrorists also would decline. A 2017 study of more than 2,800 attacks in the US, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand revealed that guns are by far the most lethal way to kill as many people as possible – even more than explosives or vehicular strikes. Guns were used in just 10% of attacks but accounted for 55% of deaths. In the US, terrorists also prefer guns: out of 16 lethal terrorism-associated attacks since 9/11, all but two involved firearms.

“Even building basic stuff like a pipe bomb is hard,” says Risa Brooks, a professor of political science at Marquette University in Wisconsin. “By making it more difficult to get access to a lethal weapon, you’re making it harder for terrorists to engage in violence.”

Improbable peace

History shows that violence is ingrained in human nature, however, and guns are by no means a prerequisite for conflict. “Think of the Rwandan genocide,” says David Yamane, a professor of sociology at Wake Forest University in North Carolina. “There was tremendous violence, much without firearms.”

(Video) If You Could Make Every Gun Disappear, Would You?
What if all guns disappeared? (7)

Guns are hardly a prerequisite for conflict – as shown in this portrait of Console, a Hutu refugee scarred by a machete during the Rwandan genocide in 1994 (Credit: Getty Images)

Even when we take the thought experiment to its extreme and imagine all guns disappearing off the face of the Earth, war and civil strife would continue. But rather than revert to more primitive weaponry like spears, swords or bows and arrows, modern nations would likely shift to other forms of killing, including explosives, tanks, missiles and chemical and biological weapons. (Nuclear war, however, would likely remain unappealing given its extreme destructiveness, Gabor says.)

Nations also may invent new types of weapons to fill gaps left by guns, Brooks adds, with the wealthiest, most powerful states likely being the quickest to innovate the most effective new means of killing. So while warfare between states would change, “you wouldn’t necessarily change the balance of power,” Brooks says.

The same probably would not hold true for non-state actors. In places like Somalia, Sudan and Libya, where firearms are readily available, a sudden disappearance of those weapons would reduce the capacity for militias to emerge and operate. “One thing that defines non-state actors is lack of capital-intensive equipment,” she says. “They need stuff that’s easy to get, easy to transport and easy to store and hide.”

A decline in various militias’ power may sound like a good thing. But in some cases, counter-militias are composed of fighters resisting violent, repressive governments, Brooks says.

Natural world

Should guns disappear, there also would be mixed results for animals. On the one hand, the poaching and trophy hunting of endangered species would decline greatly. On the other, control of problem animals – whether rabid raccoons, stampeding elephants, venomous snakes or charging polar bears – would become more difficult.

“There are plenty of legitimate reasons for firearm ownership, especially in a country like Australia that’s agricultural and has a similar frontier history to the US,” Alpers says. “On farms, they’re a standard tool of the trade.”

What if all guns disappeared? (8)

If guns disappeared, there would be extra potential challenges for both hunting and agriculture (Credit: Getty Images)

Guns are also integral for invasive species management, he continues. Thousands of cats, pigs, goats, possums and other harmful non-native species are shot each year to try to preserve delicate ecosystems, especially on islands. Doing away with guns would make that already-steep uphill battle all the more difficult – and less humane. Mercy killings of injured livestock and other animals likewise would be made more brutal without guns. “If you’ve got a big, sick animal, a hatchet is no substitution for a quick death with a firearm,” Alpers says.

Money matters

Guns are made for killing, but their influence extends to additional facets of life and society, all of which would change.

What if all guns disappeared? (9)

In the US, the firearms industry accounts for $50 billion (£35 billion) – still a relatively small part of the economy overall (Credit: Getty Images)

(Video) If all the guns disappeared would we be safer?

In terms of the economy, the US stands the most to lose if guns disappeared. The Firearms Industry Trade Association calculates that the firearms industry accounts for $20 billion (£15 billion) in direct contributions, plus another $30 billion (£20 billion) in other contributions. For the US economy, though, losing $50 billion (£35 billion) “wouldn’t even be a blip on the screen,” Spitzer says. “It’s not zero, but it’s just not very big compared to the economy as a whole.”

In fact, there would likely be a modest net economic gain if guns disappeared. Gun death and injury-related expenses add up to direct losses of around $10.7 billion (£7 billion) per year, and more than $200 billion (£140 billion) when other factors are taken into account. “In the US, if you look at all the financial costs of gun violence, it’s not just direct medical costs and rehabilitation for people who are shot, but costs to the justice system and lost income of victims, and even quality of life costs,” Gabor says.

Indeed, while the overall impacts to the economy would be negligible, Miller points out that the less tangible gains would be significant. For one, many people would feel safer. “We’d see new generations that were not traumatised by the sound of gunfire that they could hear from their bedroom,” he says. “That could make a huge difference in the mental health of our children.”

Americans of all ages are increasingly terrified of being attacked in a public place, Gabor adds, whether at school, a movie theatre, a nightclub or on the street. Even if such events are relatively rare, “this onslaught of mass shootings tears at the social fabric,” he says. “People’s sense of security and trust in each other is eroded, causing profound social and psychological effects.”

What if all guns disappeared? (10)

Demonstrators participate in the March for Our Lives rally against gun violence in March 2018 in Washington, DC (Credit: Getty Images)

Many would be able to breathe easier with guns no longer in the picture, but some gun owners would experience the opposite effect and feel more vulnerable without their weapons. “There are people in the defensive gun world who arm themselves against others – whether that’s larger people, people with knives or others with guns – to equalise the situation,” Yamane says. Removing guns “would definitely leave people who are potential victims of violence unable to defend themselves against stronger, more forceful attackers,” he says.

Whether guns actually help people stay safe and defend themselves is a controversial subject. But the limited research available on this topic tends to indicate that guns have the opposite effect. A 1993 study of 1,860 homicides found that the presence of guns in a home significantly increases the risk of homicide by a family member or intimate acquaintance, for example. A 2014 meta-study likewise found that access to firearms is associated with homicide and completed suicide attempts.

What if all guns disappeared? (11)

In India, some women are learning self-defence and shooting to protect themselves – but whether guns actually help people stay safe is controversial (Credit: Getty Images)

So while some gun owners may lose a sense of security if guns disappeared, “the data show that’s a false sense of security,” Miller says.

Gun culture also would be something that many firearm owners would miss. But Miller points out that recreational hunters could shift from rifles to other means of killing, such as bows and arrows. The same goes for those who visit shooting ranges for fun, or who collect guns as a hobby – they simply could find a replacement activity. Though for someone for whom guns are a passion, that is unlikely to be much comfort.

“They’d get a bit of loss of enjoyment because they wanted to buy a gun more than they wanted to buy a television set or whatever,” Miller says. “But on the other hand, a lot of people would still be alive. And I think that outweighs loss of enjoyment.”

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FAQs

How many guns are in America? ›

How Many Guns in America? There are estimated to be over 400 million guns in the United States between police, the military, and American civilians. Over 393 Million (Over 98%) of those guns are in civilian hands, the equivalent of 120 firearms per 100 citizens.

Who invented guns? ›

The first firearms can be traced back to 10th century China. The Chinese were the first to invent gunpowder, and historians typically credit the first guns as being weapons the Chinese called fire lances. The fire lance was a metal or bamboo tube attached to the end of a spear.

Is it illegal to have a deactivated gun? ›

Under Regulation 3(1), a person in possession of a deactivated firearm commits an offence unless they have given notice of the deactivated firearm to the appropriate national authority or, where the deactivated firearm has been transferred to the person, the transfer has already been notified by the person transferring ...

How is a gun deactivated? ›

A weapon is a defectively deactivated weapon if: it was at any time a firearm, it has been rendered incapable of discharging any shot, bullet or other missile, but.

Why do Americans need guns? ›

Firearms are widely used in the United States for self-defense, hunting, and recreational uses, such as target shooting.

Why do Americans love guns? ›

Why Does America Love Guns? - YouTube

What is the oldest gun in the world? ›

The Heilongjiang hand cannon or hand-gun is a bronze hand cannon manufactured no later than 1288 and is the world's oldest confirmed surviving firearm. It weighs 3.55 kg (7.83 pounds) and is 34 centimeters (13.4 inches) long.

Who invented the bullet? ›

Henri-Gustave Delvigne, (born 1799, Hamburg [Germany]—died Oct. 18, 1876, Toulon, France), French army officer and inventor who designed innovative rifles and helped introduce the cylindrical bullet.

Who first used guns in war? ›

The first battles actually to be decided by firearms were fought between French and Spanish troops on Italian soil early in the 16th century; these included Marignano (1515), Bicocca (1522), and, above all, Pavia (1525).

Can I serialize my own gun? ›

“Through this rule, the Justice Department is requiring federally licensed dealers and gunsmiths taking any unserialized firearm into inventory to serialize that weapon.

What do deactivated guns mean? ›

What is a deactivated weapon? A deactivated weapon is a real firearm which has been altered in such a way that it is no longer capable of discharging any bullet, missile or other projectile.

Are deactivated guns legal in France? ›

All deactivated weapons that were previously classified as category A, B or C would now have to be registered within the next few months. Otherwise you will be liable to prosecution (2 years in prison, 30,000 € fine, confiscation of the license and all legal weapons for the next five years).

How long can guns go without being cleaned? ›

A gun can typically go about 6 months without cleaning if it is not being used regularly. If you use it frequently you will need to make a judgment call. Of course, anytime there is any potential for moisture coming in contact with the gun you should clean it before storing it away.

What does it mean when a gun is pinned? ›

To get around both the AOW and SBR laws, some gun owners turn to a gunsmithing technique called pinning and welding. This process involves drilling a hole through the muzzle device and partly into the barrel (specifically, through the threading), inserting a steel rod, and welding it, permanently affixing the device.

What disqualifies you from gun ownership? ›

Access to firearms is restricted for at least a temporary period after a person has been convicted of violent, firearm-related, and other serious felonies and misdemeanors, including domestic violence offenses and hate crimes.

What guns are illegal in the US? ›

Firearms illegal to all civilians. Machine guns. Sawed-off shot guns. Explosives and bombs.

Why guns should not be banned? ›

Guns are a necessary tool in a violent world. They provide protection from muggings, home invasions, terrorist incidents, and mass shootings. Furthermore, an armed citizenry is (as a last resort) a guarantee against tyranny.

What state has the most guns per person? ›

The number of firearms per capita ranges significantly between states. The lowest is 3 per 1,000 people in Rhode Island and New York, to 229 per 1,000 people in Wyoming. Wyoming has, by far, the highest number of guns per capita.

How easy is it to get a gun in America? ›

Many states have added restrictions and regulations that may require additional background checks or waiting periods. But, for the most part, Americans can typically purchase a gun within hours. Under federal law, Americans are not required to undergo a background check when purchasing a firearm from a private seller.

What is the strongest gun ever? ›

The . 50-caliber rifle created by Ronnie Barrett and sold by his company, Barrett Firearms Manufacturing Inc., is the most powerful firearm civilians can buy. It weighs about 30 pounds and can hit targets up to 2,000 yards away with armor-piercing bullets.

What is the greatest gun ever? ›

Greatest Firearms in History
  • GLOCK 17. Gaston Glock created what is now an iconic sporting and self-defense weapon – the Glock 17. ...
  • AK-47. ...
  • M1 GARAND. ...
  • COLT M1911. ...
  • MG-42. ...
  • SMITH & WESSON 29. ...
  • M4/M16. ...
  • Uzi.
24 Sept 2021

Can magnets stop bullets? ›

Typically, no. Most bullets aren't ferromagnetic – they aren't attracted to magnets. Bullets are usually made of lead, maybe with a copper jacket around them, neither of which sticks to a magnet. These magnets made a bullet tumble on Mythbusters, but didn't change where it hit the target.

Do bullets get old? ›

Ammunition doesn't “expire” per se, but the gunpowder looses potency over time. The largest risk to shooting old ammunition isn't a failure to fire, it's the risk that you will actually fire the shot and it doesn't have enough momentum to make it out the barrel.

How fast do bullets fly? ›

When bullets fly through the air, they do so at amazing speeds. The fastest bullets travel more than 2,600 feet per second. That's equivalent to over 1,800 miles per hour. To put that in perspective, it's amazing to realize that bullets travel over twice the speed of sound!

When did swords stop being used? ›

It was not until the late 1920s and early 1930s that this historic weapon was finally discarded for all but ceremonial purposes by most remaining horse mounted regiments of Europe and the Americas. In China troops used the long anti-cavalry Miao dao well into the Second Sino-Japanese War.

When did guns replace bows? ›

Out with the old. In Europe, military bows became obsolete around the 16th Century as firearms became more sophisticated. It should be noted that bows coexisted with guns in Asia for much longer than Europe. The war bow had served armies very well indeed for many millennia prior to the 16th Century.

Which country used gun first? ›

The origin of firearms began with gunpowder and its invention, mostly likely in China, more than 1,000 years ago.

How many guns are there in the U.S. 2022? ›

Estimates show that there are anywhere from over 200 million to more than 350 million guns in the U.S. Because of variances in regulations throughout the nation, it's impossible to get exact numbers when it comes to the total number of guns in the nation and the number of guns in each state.

What percentage of USA have guns? ›

The Small Arms Survey stated that U.S. civilians alone account for 393 million (about 46 percent) of the worldwide total of civilian held firearms. This amounts to "120.5 firearms for every 100 residents."

How many guns are in the U.S. 2021? ›

Currently as of December 2021 there are an estimated 436.4 million guns in the United States. The last estimated number till March 2020 suggests that there are approximately 393,347,000 privately owned firearms in the United States.

How many guns are in the U.S. by state? ›

Number of registered weapons in the United States in 2021, by state
CharacteristicNumber of registered weapons
Texas1,006,555
Florida518,725
Virginia423,707
California406,360
9 more rows
19 Oct 2021

What state in the US has the most guns? ›

Wyoming. Wyoming has the highest number of registered guns per capita of any state in America. For every 1,000 residents, there are 195.7 guns, about three times the rate of second-place D.C. That's 114,052 registered firearms in a state with a population of only 582,658 people.

What state has the most guns per person? ›

The number of firearms per capita ranges significantly between states. The lowest is 3 per 1,000 people in Rhode Island and New York, to 229 per 1,000 people in Wyoming. Wyoming has, by far, the highest number of guns per capita.

What gun is the most American? ›

What Are The Top American Guns:
  • American Long Rifle.
  • Colt Paterson.
  • 1860 Henry Rifle.
  • Model 1873 Colt Single Action Army.
  • Springfield 1903.
  • 1911 Pistol.
  • Browning M2.
  • M1 Garand.
4 Jul 2022

What guns are illegal in the US? ›

Firearms illegal to all civilians. Machine guns. Sawed-off shot guns. Explosives and bombs.

How many guns do I need? ›

This answer depends on the size of your household and your budget. At a minimum, every household should have at least two firearms. One handgun and one rifle.

How easy is it to get a gun in America? ›

Many states have added restrictions and regulations that may require additional background checks or waiting periods. But, for the most part, Americans can typically purchase a gun within hours. Under federal law, Americans are not required to undergo a background check when purchasing a firearm from a private seller.

Which state has most gun violence? ›

Here's where gun violence is the highest in the U.S.

Mississippi, Louisiana, Wyoming, Missouri and Alabama have the highest firearm mortality rates in the country, according to the CDC . Alaska, New Mexico, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Montana also have high firearm mortality rates.

What guns will we have in the future? ›

Top 10: Weapons of the future
  • Autonomous weapons. ...
  • High-energy lasers. ...
  • Space-based weapons. ...
  • Hypersonic aircraft. ...
  • Active Denial System. ...
  • Nuclear missiles. ...
  • Stun guns (Tasers) ...
  • E-bombs.
4 Sept 2006

Who bought the most guns last year? ›

Last year, Americans bought 38.9 million guns, the second-highest year since data began to be kept by the FBI in 1998.
...
Here are gun sales by state in 2021:
  • Alabama (946,271)
  • Alaska (91,207)
  • Arizona (563,763)
  • Arkansas (288,706)
  • California (1,476,073)
  • Colorado (628,811)
  • Connecticut (277,250)
  • Delaware (69,068)
5 Jan 2022

What is the most armed country? ›

GENEVA (Reuters) - The United States has 90 guns for every 100 citizens, making it the most heavily armed society in the world, a report released on Tuesday said.

How many guns can you own legally in the US? ›

Federal law does not limit the number of guns a person may buy in any given time period. However, federal law does require federal firearm licensees (“FFLs”) to report multiple sales of handguns to ATF and other specified law enforcement agencies.

What state has least gun laws? ›

Summary. The most gun friendly state in the United States is Arizona. The least gun friendly state in the United States is Delaware. 149,146 Americans are employed by the U.S. firearm industry.

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